Election Day Analysis

Here is my late analysis;

(1) The voters were not in a mood for change. They are reasonably happy with the status quo.

(2) The voters WERE informed, as evidenced by their showing up to voice their displeasure with out County Attorney, Dennis Paxinos.

(3) Large numbers of Democrats voted on the GOP primary ticket.

(4) Voters were happy to leave blank BOTH names on races where they didn't know either candidate.

(5) Absentee ballots changed the entire dynamic of this election. This election was decided by May 15th.


I have been looking at my own campaign for County Clerk & Recorder, and since hindsight is always 20/20, I can see why I didn't win.

Don't get me wrong, we ran a good race, pulling 8,278 votes (42%) of the vote in a primary against a 4-term incumbent is impressive. If I were that incumbent, I'd certainly have the realization that the voters were watching me, since 42% of his own party want him out of there.

Winning a race like this one, against a 4-term incumbent is always a long shot though, and absentee ballots really lessened the time I had to get my message out there.

Looking at the 9 precincts I won, I can track my campaign perfectly.

3 of those precincts I had sent out a campaign letter to, on the same day the absentee ballots went out.

The other 6 precincts I won were precincts where I spent time on the doors.

Looking at the dates, the precincts I worked in after May 15th I didn't win, because nearly all of the voters in those areas had already voted.

On election day, I went to vote at the Metra at 8:30 am, after the polls had been open for 90 minutes, and I was the 4th live person to have voted. And there were over 700 absentee ballots already in.

So what does this mean?

First, in the fall elections, candidates need to front-load their campaign, big time, to make sure they have done everything they want to do by the first week in October. Because a week after the absentee ballots go out, the election will be over again.

Second, spend most of your time on the doors, because that's the most effective way to win votes. Looking at the precincts I won, they are a roadmap of where I wore out shoe leather.

More thoughts later - have a great day - Eric

Thanks.

Election day is here.

Win, Lose, or Tie, the election is over for me at 8:00 pm tonight.

Tomorrow I'll pull my signs, breathe a sigh of relief, and try to remember what it's like to have some kind of a schedule.

Thanks to all who supported and encouraged me.

Thanks to all the people who gave out my cards, and literature.

Thanks to my daughter Maggie who is my number one envelope stuffer, literature folder, printer, and campaigner.

Thanks to my daughter Sarah Smith, who is my campaign treasurer.

Special thanks to my wife Lori, who has tolerated the interruption in her life for 5 months.

Thanks to the Montana Shrugged Group, The Midland Empire Pachyderms, and the other conservative candidates.

Results and analysis tomorrow -

Thanks for stopping by - Eric